The situation in the South China Sea is more worrying than that in the Taiwan Strait, says Indo Pacific security expert Lisa Curtis, former top US official and now Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo Pacific Security Programme at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a strategy think tank in Washington, DC.
“People look at the Taiwan Strait, they worry about 2027, but I think we need to focus on the South China Sea; that is where I am most concerned about a future conflict involving the U.S. and China,” Ms Curtis told ST’s Asian Insider podcast.
Though it is unclear whether the assessment is based on anything specific, or whether it is a deadline, the idea that 2027 is the year China will invade Taiwan, has been seized on by Washington DC’s strategic community as a looming watershed.
Meanwhile in the South China Sea, despite talks between China and the Philippines regarding resupply of the small contingent of Philippine Marines aboard the World War II era ship Sierra Madre which Manila had grounded on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in 1999, tensions remain high.
In the latest incident on Aug 19, Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard vessels collided near Sabina Shoal, a disputed feature in the Spratly Islands. The vessels were damaged and though there were no casualties Washington responded by reminding Beijing of the U.S.’s 73-year-old Mutual Defense Treaty with Manila.
The incident came just days after a Chinese PLA Air Force jet unleashed flares very close to a Philippine military plane on a routine mission over Scarborough Shoal, another disputed feature. The Philippine government filed a diplomatic protest with China after the encounter.
China claims most of the 1.3 million square miles of the South China Sea, including the Second Thomas Shoal, where Philippine vessels must run the gauntlet of a de facto Chinese blockade to resupply the Marines on the Sierra Madre.
The United States however, needs to maintain a fine balance, being careful not to be too provocative and back China into a corner, Ms Curtis told ST’s Asian Insider podcast.
Both sides can misread the other or miscalculate, and that could quickly see a crisis turning into a conflict, she said.
China is testing the Philippines, and also the United States, but is “underestimating the level of commitment of the United States to the Philippine alliance,” she told Asian Insider.
Ms Curtis, a specialist in the Indo Pacific and South Asia, has had 20 years in the US government including at the National Security Council, the CIA, the State Department, and Capitol Hill - and has been deputy assistant to the President under three successive national security advisors.
China’s aggression has spurred new closeness between Manila and Washington, and between Manila and Japan and Australia, in a loose but solidifying coalition opposing China’s actions in the region. In May Australia agreed to strengthen security cooperation including military drills, with the US, Japan and the Philippines.
Speaking alongside Ms Curtis, Filipina writer Marites Vitug told Asian Insider public opinion in the Philippines is solidly behind President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr’s bellicose approach compared with the appeasement of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte.
Ms Vitug, a longtime investigative journalist, and author of several books including the 2018 “Rock Solid : How the Philippines Won Its Maritime Case Against China” recently released her latest book co-authored with Camille Elemia and titled “Unrequited Love : Duterte’s China Embrace.”
A survey in June had found that 76 percent of Filipinos believe that the current administration should continue asserting its maritime rights and protecting the West Philippine Sea, she said.
The West Philippine Sea is Manila’s name for the parts of the South China Sea that fall within its exclusive econmic zone.
Fifty one percent of those surveyed believed that the Philippines should strengthen existing alliances and hold joint military patrols and exercises, with the top partner country of choice being the United States, Ms Vitug said.
But she added that the Marcos government should be clear about what kind of help it wants from the US - including whether it wants support from the US for the contentious resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal, that bring it eyeball to eyeball with the Chinese Coast Guard.
Produced by: Nirmal Ghosh (nirmal@sph.com.sg) and Fa’izah Sani
Edited by: Fa’izah Sani
Follow Asian Insider with Nirmal Ghosh every third and fourth Friday of the month here:
Channel: https://str.sg/JWa7
Apple Podcasts: https://str.sg/JWa8
Spotify: https://str.sg/JWaX
Website: http://str.sg/stpodcasts
Feedback to: podcast@sph.com.sg
Follow Nirmal Ghosh on X: https://str.sg/JD7r
Read Nirmal Ghosh’s articles: https://str.sg/JbxG
Register for Asian Insider newsletter: https://str.sg/stnewsletters
---
Discover more ST podcast channels:
All-in-one ST Podcasts channel: https://str.sg/wvz7
The Usual Place: https://str.sg/wEr7u
In Your Opinion: https://str.sg/w7Qt
COE Watch: https://str.sg/iTtE
Asian Insider: https://str.sg/JWa7
Health Check: https://str.sg/JWaN
Green Pulse: https://str.sg/JWaf
Your Money & Career: https://str.sg/wB2m
Hard Tackle: https://str.sg/JWRE
#PopVultures: https://str.sg/JWad
Music Lab: https://str.sg/w9TX
---
ST Podcast website: http://str.sg/stpodcasts
ST Podcasts YouTube: https://str.sg/4Vwsa
---
Special edition series:
True Crimes Of Asia (6 eps): https://str.sg/i44T
The Unsolved Mysteries of South-east Asia (5 eps): https://str.sg/wuZ2
Invisible Asia (9 eps): https://str.sg/wuZn
Stop Scams (10 eps): https://str.sg/wuZB
Singapore’s War On Covid (5 eps): https://str.sg/wuJa
---
Get The Straits Times’ app, which has a dedicated podcast player section:
The App Store: https://str.sg/icyB
Google Play: https://str.sg/icyX
#STAsianInsider
