Even by the Middle Eastern standards, the past year has been full of surprises. A bolt-from-the-blue attack by Hamas produced the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. The resulting Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has now lasted longer than nearly anyone first imagined. Iran launched perhaps the largest drone and missile strike in history against Israel, which was blunted by unprecedented cooperation from countries in the region and beyond.

Yet the biggest surprise is also the most ominous for global order. A radical, quasi-state actor most Americans had never heard of, the Houthis of Yemen, have mounted the gravest challenge to freedom of the seas in decades – and arguably beaten a weary superpower along the way.